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The economic scenario

In particular, Chinese GDP is expected to grow at a rate of almost 7% in 2017, thanks to the positive contribution of domestic demand, supported by the expansive budget policy at the start of the year. The particularly brilliant growth was induced by government intentions to bring the Chinese economy into flourishing political conditions in October, after which the refocusing of attention on structural reforms could slow down the current dynamism. The fact is that the recovery of China has triggered an acceleration in world trade that grew in the first half of 2017 at a rate of about 4%, further amplified today by the depreciation of the dollar on the main currencies.

The effect is a progressive shift in purchasing power from the dollar area to the other countries, with a consequent recovery in operators' confidence in the emerging countries most exposed to the dollar and the possibility of greater room for maneuver for the monetary policies of some countries. widening monetary conditions by reducing interest rates (eg Brazil).

The cyclical recovery of emerging countries is expected to continue, but appears vulnerable to various risk factors, from the normalization of US monetary policy to the commercial policy decisions of the Trump administration. In detail, in China, credit control and the return of economic policy stimulus will accompany a gradual slowdown in growth of around 6% on average per year; higher, in the order of 7% in 2018, the expected expansion for the Indian economy, once the impact of the monetary reform has been absorbed. Russia and Brazil sanction their exit from the recession.

The EMU shows a surprising recovery, forecasting a growth rate of 2.4% in 2017. Growth in Italy and in many other countries has been fueled by domestic demand, thanks to the impetus provided by expansive economic policies in a context of continuous improvement of labor markets, recovery of the world economy and political uncertainties dispelled by electoral outcomes. Investments showed higher growth than household consumption, benefiting from the improvement in world trade, the impact on exports, the reduction in unused production capacity and the favorable financial conditions. Consumption, albeit non-protagonists, held growth, despite rising inflation.

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